Are continued public sector and CGIAR investments on wheat crop improvement research justifiable? A Moroccan case

In Morocco, the adoption of recent improved wheat varieties is low, casting doubt on whether investments in wheat research are paying off. This paper generates estimates of the returns to the national and international investment in wheat research for Morocco. The benefits are estimated by applying the endogenous switching regression model to data from a nationally representative sample survey of 2,296 wheat fields, whereas costs were estimated using data on public and CGIAR (INRA-CG) investments on wheat research in Morocco. Considering all the benefits and costs of wheat research investment in Morocco, we estimated a conservative benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 19.64 with 623 thousand tons (14.8%) of additional wheat supply from domestic production and net economic benefit of US$355 million. We also estimated that institutional problems in the seed system identified by past research are causing the country to lose at least 746.6 thousand tons (17.7%) wheat production and net economic benefit of US$75.2 million. These results show that despite the institutional challenges, wheat research in Morocco is still paying off and the country has sufficient incentives to address the problems in the seed sector that prevent the development and uptake of recent varieties